According to Statista, the overall cannabis market in Europe is forecasted to reach $6.58 billion in 2025. This market will resolve based on whether the combined medical and recreational cannabis market in Europe reaches at least $5 billion in value by June 30, 2025.

Resolution will be based on reports from reputable cannabis market research firms such as Prohibition Partners, Statista, or New Frontier Data.

Resolution sources:

• Statista Cannabis Market Outlook

• New Frontier Data

  Background

  The European cannabis market is experiencing significant growth, driven by increasing legalization and acceptance of both medical and recreational cannabis across the continent. Current projections from market research firms show strong upward trajectories:

  • Statista forecasts the overall European cannabis market to reach $6.58 billion by the end of 2025

  • Prohibition Partners predicts the European cannabis market will reach €3.2 billion (approximately $3.6 billion USD) by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.4%

  • The recreational cannabis segment alone is expected to reach $1.83 billion by 2025

  These projections suggest substantial growth from the current market size, though estimates vary between research firms.

  Resolution Criteria

  This market will resolve as YES if credible market research reports from established firms (such as Prohibition Partners, Statista, or New Frontier Data) indicate that the combined value of medical and recreational cannabis markets in Europe has reached or exceeded $5 billion by June 30, 2025.

  The market will resolve as NO if:

  • The combined market value is reported to be less than $5 billion as of June 30, 2025

  • No credible reports are available by the resolution date that confirm the $5 billion threshold has been reached

  If multiple reports provide different estimates, preference will be given to the most comprehensive and credible analysis, with consideration of the methodology used.

  Considerations

  • Market valuations may vary based on methodology, exchange rates, and the specific countries included in "Europe"

  • Regulatory changes in major European markets could significantly accelerate or decelerate growth

  • The timing of market research reports may not align perfectly with the June 2025 deadline, in which case the most recent reliable data will be used