By what date will users be able to follow specific other users on Manifold?
Basic
7
Ṁ700
resolved Jun 3
100%94%
2022-06-03
2%Other
0.7%
2022-09-01
0.1%
2023-01-01
0.0%
2024-01-01
2%
2022-07-01
0.7%
2022-08-01
At what point will Manifold begin its heroic journey to fulfill its noble and ultimate destiny as the one true social network? Resolves upon implementation of feature to the nearest date written in YYYY-MM-DD format that has not yet elapsed.
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Ṁ1,000
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https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/commit/c1bda8a775a03bc41769391f16602397777690da
You can make a fair amount of money on manifold by just watching the commit log
@wasabipesto indeed!
I did think about buckets, but I didn't figure out how to make that work with your interface, It's a question better suited towards Metaculus-style histograms. With buckets, you'd have an enormous number of potential responses to sift. At least this way there are only several hundred potential options, and you can just buy a bit on a bunch of them (although if people get really granular this also gets frustrating). Also I didn't take into account insider trading, so maybe this market is super broken. Maybe the question can be altered to /in which month/ which partially solves all of these problems?
Hm, my first thought is that this kind of market works best with buckets (date ranges) instead of date points, because otherwise someone working on the feature is very incentivized to put the specific day right before they merge in the code. Or another problem: If I put 2022-06-07, then someone else puts 2022-06-06 and 2022-06-08, they've basically cut out all of my chances of winning But maybe there's a workaround? Some way to weight responses based on how early they came on, or distributing the mana proportionally to how large the buckets were? Something for one of our math specialists to work out...
No idea if this is realistic but gotta add a more optimistic option in innit. This is something on our radar although defo not a priority right now.

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