The Objective

Forecast whether my forecast is acurate.

Process

Each day at 8:30pm EST (starting Dec 1):

1. I will check my local weather forecast on the Weather Channel (for tomorrow). I am not going to reveal my zip code, but I am located in the New York tri-state area. I will record the forecast as the highest percent chance of rain throughout the 24h period.

2. I am going to record whether there was precipitation during the previous 24 hour period..

3. I will enter all of the data in the table below.

4. At the end of the month, I will compute the Brier score.

Resolution

This market will resolve to 100x the Brier score I compute (rounded).

(Remember a lower value would mean the weather station is more accurate and vice versa)

Data

December 2:

• Forecast: 100%

• Results: Rain

December 3:

• Forecast: 4%

• Results: No Rain

December 4:

• Forecast: 7%

• Results: No Rain

December 5:

• Forecast: 25%

• Results: No Rain

December 6:

• Forecast: 25%

• Results: No Rain

December 7:

• Forecast: No data (sorry)

• Results: No Rain

December 8:

• Forecast: 10%

• Results: TBD

• Update 2025-12-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Brier score will be calculated using the formulation where 0.25 is no better than chance (as opposed to the doubled formulation where 0.5 is no better than chance).