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MANIFOLD
Correspondents Association dinner incident prop bets
32
Ṁ3.1kṀ13k
May 27
99.1%
Someone was hit by a bullet (or other firearm projectile)
99%
At least one shot was fired
98.8%
Shooter is an adult (18 yo+)
98%
The shooter is (or all shooters are) identified or caught within 24 hours of the shooting.
98%
At least one shot was fired by a security / Secret Service person
94%
The first shot was entirely outside of (not from or into) the ballroom
92%
Shooter is confirmed to be Cole Tomas Allen
78%
Shooter is motivated by left-wing politics
76%
The shooter is (or shooters are) motivated by a grievance against the President or one or more members of the administration
67%
Shooter had donated to a candidate through actblue (Dem platform) before
61%
Shooter acted alone (No accomplices)
50%
The shooter or shooters have a manifesto
26%
Shooter is motivated by right-wing politics
25%
Shooter is linked to Iran
20%
Shooter wrote on bullets
19%
The shooter is (or shooters are) motivated by a grievance against the press or a member of the press
19%
Shooter had donated to a candidate through winred(gop platform) before
16%
Shooter is linked to Islamic terrorism
15%
Attempt at Market Manipulation discovered
10%
Shooter is a furry

A security incident occurred at the White House Correspondents Association dinner.

Add your own props; I'll do my best to judge them.

Market close in one month, but individual answers will close early if there is a consensus of credible reporting.

Because some answers may be subjective, I will not trade on this market.

  • Update 2026-04-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Shooter" is defined as a person who fired a shot. This answer resolves YES only if everyone who fired a shot in the incident is identified or caught within 24 hours — not just accomplices who did not fire.

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Someone should make one for insider trading too. This wouldn't count as manipulation if it was a third party instead, unbeknownst to the shooter!

Can someone add an option for whether the shooter is dead (killed/died on April 25)?

bought Ṁ25 NO

@ShawnReynolds They posted a picture of him alive, I think

@Qoiuoiuoiu They said he had critical injuries, so maybe he's dead at this point.

bought Ṁ100 YES

CBS confirms the shooter has been hit and has sustained "critical injuries" according to the live broadcast

For the shooter donated to... Questions. Resolves no on June 30 2026 unless positive evidence presented.

@Jack1 And Pacs, etc also count

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 7% order

@nonnihil If security fired shots back at the shooter, this wouldn't count right, even though you can argue security are "invited guests."

@Dssc Yeah, clarifying.

@nonnihil I assume this includes slugs/pellets, IE any type of gunfire?

@Dssc Yeah, I probably should have been less specific. All firearm projectiles from birdshot to cannonballs, even including something really weird like a homemade blunderbuss or whatever.

sold Ṁ72 YES

@Bandors Does this mean that the event has to continue and happen today? IE if it's rescheduled to later date, would this count as YES or NO?

@Dssc That would be a new show. "THE SHOW MUST GO ON!" reasonably means the same event, without everyone going home.

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 90% order

@nonnihil This one only refers to the shooter specifically right, IE it was a single shooter with accomplices who were helping beforehand but didn't shoot/weren't at the location, it would only need the shooter specifically to be caught?

@Dssc I'll go with "shooter" to mean "a person who fired a shot". Probably there is only one ("there's never a second gunman" is a solid rule of thumb), but this is intended to mean that everyone who fired a shot in the incident is identified or caught.

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