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MANIFOLD
APUSH cheater prop bets
39
Ṁ1.5kṀ11k
2027
55%
gets in any kind of trouble
54%
has it p1
53%
is female
46%
is male
42%
is indian
40%
is chinese
39%
got their answers from a higher grade level
37%
has it p2
30%
gets caught
20%
confesses
18%
gets suspended
13%
not chinese or indian
7%
gets expelled

Will resolve when there is a great consensus or if there is a definitive answer. However, if it takes too long, it will resolve NA.

  • Update 2026-04-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A cheater is known to exist (based on teacher's account), but the identity of the cheater is unknown.

  • Update 2026-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): All currently unresolved sub-markets will be resolved N/A in the near future if the cheater is still not caught.

  • Update 2026-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any sub-questions about whether the cheater "gets in any kind of trouble" will resolve N/A because the cheater's identity is unknown.

  • Update 2026-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve N/A for unresolved options because even if the cheater gets caught and gets in trouble, there is no guarantee anyone will find out — so resolution criteria cannot be met.

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@traders i will N/A this market in the near future if still not caught

@ZandaZhu wait all of them?

@knowingant all of the currently unresolved ones

@ZandaZhu in particular is “gets in any kind of trouble” conditional on them getting caught?

@knowingant well, we don't know who it is so we don't know if they got in any trouble or not so it will N/A

opened a Ṁ800 NO at 30% order

@ZandaZhu okay what about “gets caught”

@knowingant We won't know that either. One scenario is that the cheater gets caught and gets in trouble but doesn't tell anybody so nobody knows if they really got caught or not.

@ZandaZhu have they been caught yet? if not resolve 6/5

Why are the odds that the cheater is male so low compared to the odds that the cheater is female? Aren't men more likely to cheat than women?

@Qoiuoiuoiu the analysis that we have right now are based off where the cheating paper was found, who sits there in previous periods and the personalities of people sitting close to it. Currently, all the major suspects are female. Sorry for the late reply

Is this talking about a known cheater? Or is this speculating that there will be one?

@hct there is a cheater (unless the teacher is lying) but we don't know who

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