Will 1 EUR buy more than 1 USD at the end of 2023?
36
180
αΉ€740
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
YES

Using the European Central Bank reference rate at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-usd.en.html, resolved early January when the last rate of the year has been posted.

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predicted YES

can we resolve this yes? the close date happened

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch I will resolve it early January when we have the final rate posted as per description, however I have extended the close time until end of year

predicted YES

@nollfem how about now?

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch Yes! Thanks for the reminder

bought αΉ€100 of YES

If we treat the price of EUR/USD as a normal distribution using the start date of 1/1/2010 and end date of 10/30/2023, we can have a mean of 1.1713, a standard deviation of 1.14005 and skewness to the right for this case. Using calculus in Excel we can have the probability that X>1 as P(X>1) = 1 - P(X<=1)

after calculating, we are left with a 96% possibility that the EUR/USD value can be greater than 1. Although this is a simplification of the problem, I use this result as a guide to vote Yes.