Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?
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I believe that in less than two years we will know who Satoshi is.
Tyler Cowen (2024), https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/10/does-it-matter-who-satoshi-was.html
What matters is the state of affairs when this market closes. I have entered the close date as 2026-10-24 and will not change it.
I will use my judgement to decide whether “we” know who Satoshi is.
Public information available prior to market close that convinces me is sufficient.
I may at my discretion take into consideration non‐public evidence I receive prior to market close. However, the purported identification itself must be public.
If the market resolves YES, I will state whom I believe to be Satoshi.
I will not bet on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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