Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?
Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?
18
1kṀ19782026
18%
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I believe that in less than two years we will know who Satoshi is.
Tyler Cowen (2024), https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/10/does-it-matter-who-satoshi-was.html
What matters is the state of affairs when this market closes. I have entered the close date as 2026-10-24 and will not change it.
I will use my judgement to determine whether “we” know who Satoshi is.
Public evidence available prior to market close that convinces me is sufficient.
I may at my discretion take into consideration non‐public evidence I receive prior to market close. However, the purported identification itself must be public.
If the market resolves YES, I will state whom I believe to be Satoshi.
I will not bet on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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