open = S&P 500 opening price on 1/9

close = S&P 500 closing price on 1/13

These values will be obtained from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

This market will resolve to PROB calculated by: (close - open + 250)/500, i.e. the percentile in the range (open - 250, open + 250) that close is, rounded to the nearest integer.

Examples:

Given open = 3800:

1. If close = 4000, PROB = 450/500 = 90%

2. If close = 3700, PROB = 150/500 = 30%

3. If close = 3800, PROB = 250/500 = 50%

Note that PROB >= 99.5% will resolve YES and PROB < 0.5% will resolve NO.

This market will close at 11:59 PM EST on 01/13 and pay out by 11:59 PM EST on 01/14.

01/09 Update:

open = 3910.82