S&P 500: Week of 1/9 to 1/13

Basic

Ṁ1346

resolved Jan 14

Resolved as

68%

ALL

open = S&P 500 opening price on 1/9

close = S&P 500 closing price on 1/13

These values will be obtained from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

This market will resolve to PROB calculated by: (close - open + 250)/500, i.e. the percentile in the range (open - 250, open + 250) that close is, rounded to the nearest integer.

Examples:

Given open = 3800:

If close = 4000, PROB = 450/500 = 90%
If close = 3700, PROB = 150/500 = 30%
If close = 3800, PROB = 250/500 = 50%

Note that PROB >= 99.5% will resolve YES and PROB < 0.5% will resolve NO.

This market will close at 11:59 PM EST on 01/13 and pay out by 11:59 PM EST on 01/14.

01/09 Update:

open = 3910.82

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Economics

#Pseudopseudonumeric

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Below comment is correct. Resolved to 68% after rounding.

01/13 close = 3,999.09

PROB = (3,999.09 - 3,910.82 + 250)/500 = 67.654%

Sorry, I posted the comment below + 2 messages in #market-discussion in the Manifold Discord server before realizing open = 3910, not 3810. Does anyone have thoughts on whether I am liable for any losses that occurred due to people acting on my incorrect comments and/or if I should take any action?

@nmehndir I think I have more responsibility because I’m the market creator, but not sure how much this should count.

@nmehndir I think this site is anarchy, but hey if you wanna manalink some mana, you can DM me on Discord.

@ZZZZZZ What’s your username?

predicted YES

@nmehndir EsotericEstrin#1410

@ZZZZZZ Posting here for transparency: I sent 38 M$ via manalink to cover 100% of realized and EV losses.

These shares are currently worth 87%.

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