open = S&P 500 opening price on 1/9
close = S&P 500 closing price on 1/13
These values will be obtained from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/
This market will resolve to PROB calculated by: (close - open + 250)/500, i.e. the percentile in the range (open - 250, open + 250) that close is, rounded to the nearest integer.
Examples:
Given open = 3800:
If close = 4000, PROB = 450/500 = 90%
If close = 3700, PROB = 150/500 = 30%
If close = 3800, PROB = 250/500 = 50%
Note that PROB >= 99.5% will resolve YES and PROB < 0.5% will resolve NO.
This market will close at 11:59 PM EST on 01/13 and pay out by 11:59 PM EST on 01/14.
01/09 Update:
open = 3910.82
@nmehndir I think I have more responsibility because I’m the market creator, but not sure how much this should count.
@nmehndir I think this site is anarchy, but hey if you wanna manalink some mana, you can DM me on Discord.
@ZZZZZZ Posting here for transparency: I sent 38 M$ via manalink to cover 100% of realized and EV losses.