In what year will Baby Shark Dance be surpassed in YouTube views?

Question

This question resolves if any YouTube video displaces Baby Shark Dance as the most-viewed YouTube video of all time, or if we reach the year 2030 with Baby Shark Dance still undefeated.

At the time this question was written, Baby Shark Dance has 13 billion views.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-viewed_YouTube_videos

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2030 or later, followed by 2025 and 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (10 traders, as of Jun 15, 2025).

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