Rules:
If this market closes at or above 80% chance, this market resolves as YES.
If this market closes below 80% chance, this market resolves as NO.
This market has an initial subsidy of 1,000 $M.
Resolution:
This prediction market will close in a week, on October 25 at 23:59 Peru Time (GMT-5), it will be marked as resolved on October 26 after knowing the last implied probability percentage this market traded at.
Have fun!
1,000
3.00@rossry should have used size 😅
But i liked how this market basically resolved fairly rationally, even at the end, and the probabilities most of the time were well priced.
I think NO profit taking could be wise in case the percentage changes a lot tomorrow
@Qoiuoiuoiu Yep. Will 55k order at 70% be lost to a whale or will it be deleted / set to expire before close / changed to an order on yes at 81% ?
Question really is when should one of the above happen?
The safe answer might be to delete order immediately and buy some up to 50% and come in with buy order at 81% at last second.
A more aggressive approach might be to delete ~10 minutes before close which might be good if the sell orders at low prices are growing larger. However if comments like yours and this cause sell orders at low prices to reduce in volume then earlier might be better.
I certainly can imagine lots of circling whales wondering whether to show their intent by building a position or keep their interest unknown.