Financial market pricing 2.5% chance of July cut, 94.5% chance of September cut. This may overstate things slightly, because I suppose there is theoretically some chance of a 50bp or greater cut in September, but that seems pretty remote. Certainly, pricing higher than Manifold.

Edited title to reflect creator comments.

What specifically do you mean by this? Are you asking if the Fed will lower the federal funds rate by October 20, 2024? (your close date)?

@GabeGarboden exactly

@nityaadityanagdab283 Thanks!

@GabeGarboden whats your bet ?

@nityaadityanagdab283 I think Fed will definitely cut rates before October next year. You can see market expectations here:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

@GabeGarboden got it thanks,