Will the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%?

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Inspired on this tweet: https://twitter.com/AnilVohra1962/status/1647369765391069184?t=gigWHNeMZd1iQbvEgW7lTA&s=19

[image]This market will resolve to YES if this measure of Inflation- Unemployment Rate, as measured in the Fred is below -4% the next time the Federal  Reserve cuts the baseline rates.

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May 3, 11:08pm: Will the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below 4%? → Will the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 96% chance (10 traders, as of Mar 30, 2026).

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