Resolves YES if Ukraine controls <10 km² of Kursk oblast for 1 week continuously.
Resolution source will be https://x.com/Pouletvolant3 or consensus of other credible mappers.
Current state as of Aug 11
1,000
3.00@datachef I'm guessing Trump getting elected ups the odds that Ukraine will negotiate and possibly withdraw from Kursk(?)
@ThomasEstabrook I'm betting that won't happen until Trump is actually in office. So if anything, they'll want to hold on to what they have in Kursk as a bargaining chip.
@NicoDelon well for one they are using North Koreans rather than Russians. That eliminates any advantage of being in Russia and familiar with the territory, people, etc. Biden is gonna load Ukraine up with everything he can muster over the next few months. Etc.
@datachef But see, there is too much uncertainty and you betting it down makes it cheaper for me to bet it up.
@ThomasEstabrook Can only speak for myself, but I bought YES yesterday after a Ukrainian legislator suggested that Syrsky was making excuses for a withdrawal from Kursk. She has no inside knowledge but it was somewhat persuasive speculation
Frontline update, Russia has gained 50 square miles according to liveua map in last 23 days
Polymarket on this question. A bit higher chance of removal (34 vs 25)
https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-hold-kursk-through-2024
Currently occupying 850 sq km. https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-captures-garrison-town-breakthrough-114828922.html
@Kfredric my thinking is that while Russia doesn't seem too pressed to get it back Ukraine doesn't benefit that much from continuing to hold it either.
@EmanuelRylke Not saying your theory is wrong but I was thinking 37% was too high for having to both retake everything and that small region.
@Kfredric TBH I’m really not happy with this tiny strip of land impacting the resolution of this market. When it was created, Ukraine zone of control was one contiguous territory and I didn’t expected them overtaking some irrelevant piece of no man’s land.
I was thinking about changing the rules, for example
<10 km -> YES
10…30 km -> resolves to percentage: 100 - (x - 10) * 5
But on the other hand, changing rules late in the game is a bad idea.
Upd.: I decided not to change resolution criteria.
@EmanuelRylke While they hold it, trump style “you keep what you hold” peace plans are probably unacceptable to Russia too. It’s also a major embarrassment for Putin, who can’t even hold his own territory, and can’t cover up that this is bad (given all the displaced people with families across the rest of the Russian empire). This war favours the defender in terms of attrition on troops and materiel, diverts Russian forces (even if they don’t retake it, they have to defend to stop further Ukrainian gains), and reminds pUtin that things have gone not as he planned for 2.5 years of what was expected to be a “few week war”.
The war must end in Moscow, because of politics (unless the west capitulates and we move to a very very very gradual shift to a guerilla war).