Will Simone Collins outrun Trump in her state house race?

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resolved Nov 10

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Simone Collins is running for the PA House as a Republican. She is very likely to lose HD-150, a D+15ish district, but will she outrun Trump?

The metric will be D-R two-way percentage margin for each race

If Trump is not the nominee, then the R candidate will count.

Relevant numbers

2022 state house: D+17

2022 US Senate: D+20

2020 prez: D+18

2016 prez: D+10

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bought Ṁ911 NO

Resolves No. Trump overperformed by 0.89% in margin

bought Ṁ25 YES

Cool market! Wish I had this market during Manifest to show her

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