Will a reputable news site or TV channel mention the Manifold pivot, starting from now to 2 months after the pivot?
Basic
15
337
2026
37%
chance

Reputable meaning national news sources such NYT, WSJ, WaPo, etc.

A 1 sentence mention does not count. A 2+ paragraph mention, in the context of prediction markets, gambling, or forecasting, counts. The article must be contain information about Manifold, or its derivatives including Manifest and Manifund, if the article mentions Manifold's real world cash prizes/sweepstakes somewhere.

The opinion section counts, but not any "Letters to the editor" or similar section.

Blogs on those websites do count, if it is written by an reporter or notable figure for the site (Not any random person's blog)

A national TV segment, lasting 30 seconds or more, also counts (NBC, ABC, Fox News etc.) A small reference or mention does not count. The segment must mention real money cash prizes or sweepstakes.

The 2 month timer begins when spice can be withdrawn as cash. The mention can occur before the pivot, starting at market creation date. If the article is before the pivot date, then a mention of future cash prize plans counts.

I will not bet on this market.

Resolves NO if the pivot fails or is reversed.

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Would a section on the Bloomberg Money Stuff column count? They’ve written about Manifold there before.