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https://manifold.markets/nickten/will-at-least-1-of-these-cities-be-f6e4b8c99cea

Will at least 1 of these cities be liberated by the end of January?

42% chance. Svatove, Lysychans'k, Donetsk, Volnovakha, Polohy, Tokmak, Vasylivka, Nova Kakhovka, Oleshky. if there's still fighting ongoing inside the city it will not count. Resolves to ISW [image]

For the next one i should add a city from the "over-the-river axis", anyone have ideas for a good candidate? Oleshky? Nova Kakhovka?

@nickten Oleshky seems to be the best option and the most likely place to see some action in my view.

Cool question! Can you elaborate on what you mean by liberated? Does the whole city have to be under Ukrainian control? What sources will be looked at to decide wether or not this is the case?

@Dennis5a87 Yes, the whole city under Ukrainian control. ISW primarily.