Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?

Basic

Ṁ19k

resolved Feb 24

Resolved

YES

ALL

This question resolves positively if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution. Feb 3, 11:53am: as a ref: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/ Feb 22, 11:26am: I'm still waiting for the metaculus question to resolve before resolving this market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

10 Comments

35 Holders

157 Trades

Sort by:

I am aware that a large number of Ukrainians also fled their homes as a result of the war that Russia started on their soil. I'm happy I found https://nhukr.org/help-for-children/ where I may learn how to assist these people and their kids. I am aware that numerous individuals are already taking part in this procedure.

thing*, I can't spell

Metaculus comments say that if Russia only enters territories already controlled LNR/DNR (the only think that has been confirmed so far), the question resolves NO.

I would say that missclick is less likely than 5%

The payout on $M 1 is over 2000 percent which is the highest I have ever seen on Manifold. The chance that the market resolver accidentally clicks the wrong market resolve button is worth the payout on $M 1.

"buy were they de facto occupied by Russia?" - yes But note that question is supposed to resolve on "announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine" condition.

Are DNR and LNR "areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021"? They were clearly occupied, buy were they de facto occupied by Russia?

https://twitter.com/karoldarmoros/status/1496006601303597062 Poland’s minister of defense @mblaszczak: we can confirm that Russian forces entered on the territory of so-called ‘republics’. So they violated Ukraine’s borders @RadiowaJedynka

Putin announced he would move troops into "independent regions" of Ukraine.

Arbitrage opportunity with https://manifold.markets/CharlesVorbach/will-the-question-russian-invasion

Related questions

Related questions