Will this market have a bot account bet on it before close && will this market have at least 6 human users submit a trade? (run 3)
10
26
170
resolved Jan 28
Resolved
YES

https://manifold.markets/nfd/will-this-market-have-a-bot-account-72c1187b5b07

This is a silly picking-pennies-up-off-the-ground attack on some automated traders as they apparently currently exist. Getting 6 (human) participants implies that I'm picking up pennies off the ground for every run of this market (+$M10 from the system bonus) and you're picking up pennies off the ground that an easily-taunted trading bot drops on the floor. You're effectively betting against the bots' programming getting more sophisticated before close (assuming someone bothers to try to attack the bots somehow).

May close early if YES.

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hah, new one by me

Will now resolve YES; I'll wait a few minutes in case y'all want to scare Acceleration off

sold Ṁ17 of YES

@nfd I don't think Acceleration will move

@Simon1551 could also swamp out its stake with sure bets, I guess

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@nfd How come Michael's Bot made a bet with only 2 user here?

@Simon1551 presumably because it assumed the 200-mana yes purchase was miscalibratedly-large; low traffic on a market doesn't necessarily make big trades look less like an error. This said, I don't know exactly how Michael's Bot/Acceleration works; I just know that their behaviors have proven modestly exploitable over the past 7ish tries running markets like this

This one is a shorter close date than previously (due to my error in duplicating it); bear that in mind. Still will resolve it honestly and eat the loss if that's too close for your confidence

@nfd throwing on a trade to narrow the odds a little, either way

bought Ṁ1 of NO

@nfd "3 Users" displays in the UI as I write this but the actual count is 4; I just have no stake