Will I find a way to make a profit off this market at resolve-time?
8
100Ṁ177
2027
56%
chance
3

Resolves NO if I can't or don't find a way by then. I'm not counting earlier trade gains/losses as "profit at resolve-time.* Resolves no sooner than Jan 6th 2026 and may freely resolve otherwise, either way, at my discretion.

I may trade on this market; however I won't buy a large YES position to try to swallow all the upside directly before close if enough advantage to share is just freely sitting around, and obviously I cannot make a profit by resolving NO.

I will make a good-faith effort to lock in a profit of at least 1M in the event that I resolve YES, though it is possible that a very carefully-timed trade will wipe out my upside while I'm resolving the market. Other traders agree that in the event that this occurs that there in no crying in baseball.

I do not promise to not scheme or plot market moves behind closed doors.

  • Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Profit calculation includes subsidy paid/removed. The creator will treat the M100 subsidy they paid as part of the profit calculation when determining if they made a profit at resolve-time.

If profit status is unclear at close, the market will resolve N/A.

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(Subsidy paid was M100)

@nfd (at 51% yes. I mean to treat my subsidy paid/removed as part of the profit calculation here. If I can't apparently tell if I will profit at close, N/A)

bought Ṁ10 YES

fixed resolve time mistake

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