Should I apply to ASPR/WARP? (read description)
10
212
230
resolved Mar 7
Resolved
NO

I may or may not use this market to decide whether or not to apply to ASPR/WARP.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

If I apply, get accepted, and attend ASPR or WARP, this will resolve one month after the program ends, to YES if I determine this was better than the counterfactual where I did not apply at all (so the program must be worth both the opportunity cost of attending and the time and effort spent filling out their application), NO otherwise.

If I don't apply, this will resolve one month after the program ends, to whether I wish I had applied, given testimonials from people who went (I am likely to know people who attend one or both of these programs through the Atlas Fellowship).

If I apply and get rejected, this market will resolve N/A.

I will not trade on this market, nor will I consult any traders on this market for the purpose of resolution in the case that I don't apply. To prevent shenanigans, this market will close once the program I attend starts, or, in the case I don't attend a program, when ASPR starts.

Related: https://manifold.markets/mudPi314/will-i-attend-warpesprpair-or-simil

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Update: I probably will not be applying