I may or may not use this market to decide whether or not to apply to ASPR/WARP.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
If I apply, get accepted, and attend ASPR or WARP, this will resolve one month after the program ends, to YES if I determine this was better than the counterfactual where I did not apply at all (so the program must be worth both the opportunity cost of attending and the time and effort spent filling out their application), NO otherwise.
If I don't apply, this will resolve one month after the program ends, to whether I wish I had applied, given testimonials from people who went (I am likely to know people who attend one or both of these programs through the Atlas Fellowship).
If I apply and get rejected, this market will resolve N/A.
I will not trade on this market, nor will I consult any traders on this market for the purpose of resolution in the case that I don't apply. To prevent shenanigans, this market will close once the program I attend starts, or, in the case I don't attend a program, when ASPR starts.
Related: https://manifold.markets/mudPi314/will-i-attend-warpesprpair-or-simil
Will I attend WARP/ESPR/PAIR or similar in 2024?
57% chance. Potentially relevant info:
I am starting university this fall
I applied to ESPR/PAIR in 2023. I was waitlisted -> ghosted by ESPR
I did not apply to WARP in 2023
I am a 2023 Atlas Fellow
I currently intend to apply to all programs that are eligible for this market
I will only bet YES on this market
I will comment with relevant updates on my application status for all of these programs
Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if and only if I attend an eligible program in 2024. Eligible programs are those mentioned in the title, as well as any program that either shares an instructor with or is affiliated with SPARC, ESPR, PAIR, WARP, or the Atlas Fellowship. Programs are "affiliated" if one mentions the other by name on their website. I "attend" a program if I am present onsite for at least 24 hours within the program's duration, and I am designated as a participant. For example, if I visit SPARC for a day, or if the Atlas Fellowship runs next year and I go as a junior counselor, these will not make the market resolve YES. If none of these programs run or I change my mind and decide not to apply, this market will resolve NO. This will resolve when 2024 ends, or after I have spent 24 hours as a participant in an eligible program.
1,000