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This should be arbitraged with Sam coming back and Sutskever not continuing to work on OpenAI

@ms entirelyuseless on X: "Yudkowsky's p(doom) is anti-correlated with his status; in order to have a low doom probability, he needs to be recognized as the smartest person in the world by the most high status people." / X (twitter.com)

He is more cheerful about OpenAI because he thinks the acting CEO respects him personally more than Sam did.

"8.5%"

It would probably be good to mention your rough beliefs. Someone who thinks AI risk is important will be disappointed if the new CEO ends up not caring, and vice-versa if they focus on advancing and you believe getting good AI is important.

@Aleph My p(doom) is around 80%