Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, there is a peer-reviewed scientific publication, an official statement from a recognized scientific body, or credible reporting confirming the successful creation of viable human oocytes (eggs) from human somatic cells in a laboratory setting. "Viable" is defined as the ability of these lab-derived oocytes to be fertilized and develop into healthy embryos. If no such evidence is available by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

In vitro gametogenesis (IVG) is a process that involves generating gametes (sperm or eggs) from pluripotent stem cells derived from somatic cells. This technology has been successfully demonstrated in mice, where functional oocytes have been produced from induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs), leading to the birth of healthy offspring. (science.org)

In human research, scientists have made progress by differentiating human iPSCs into primordial germ cell-like cells (PGCLCs), which are precursors to gametes. However, the complete maturation of these cells into fully functional oocytes capable of fertilization and subsequent development has not yet been achieved. (science.org)

Considerations

Achieving viable human oocytes through IVG presents several challenges, including accurately replicating the complex process of oogenesis, ensuring proper epigenetic reprogramming, and maintaining genetic stability. Additionally, ethical and regulatory considerations may influence the pace of research and the application of this technology in clinical settings. (ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)

Given the current trajectory of research and the complexities involved, it remains uncertain whether viable human oocytes from somatic cells will be realized by 2030.