“Every Bay Area House Party” House Party in London Prop Bets (add answers!)
10
275Ṁ501
Jan 18
89%
Someone takes a group photo
60%
Someone learned about the party from Manifold
60%
Someone is not aware of the first rule
60%
A plus-one doesn’t know who Scott Alexander is
50%
Over 20 people will attend
50%
Someone arrives after 10 PM
50%
Someone wears cat ears
30%
Over 30 people will attend
28%
Someone will travel over 100 miles to attend
3%
More women than men will attend

We’re hosting a party this Sunday: https://partiful.com/e/IczZWWypCS9lu6PiNFsU?source=share&c=95A3OMp1. We just announced it and invited people.

(If you’re a Manifold user with over m$1k in all-time profits, you’re welcome to come.)

Rules:

1. You are not allowed to say the truth about what you do for work. (Go hard on insane and hilarious startup ideas and cause areas. Ideally, change your story every hour. If someone appears to not know about this rule, make sure to tell them before they leave, but you don’t have to tell them immediately.)

2. AI risk chat is only allowed in the dedicated circle. We’ll try our best to keep the AI circle in a box.

There will be Huel and yFood tasting.

Elon Musk is allowed to attend without RSVPing.

“Someone” refers to any party attendee by default.

Market context
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Ṁ1,000
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Is m$1k a 100k? Asking for a friend. Just 1k feels too small to be a number.

It's 1k. A min filter. I'm okay with people I don't really know joining

2%

great legal insider trading opportunity for Elon

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