I think I spotted a mistake in @EliezerYudkowsky's post Causal Diagrams and Causal Models, published in October 2012.
My comment with the mistake description: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzuSDMx7pd2uxFc5w/causal-diagrams-and-causal-models?commentId=7HQBtja6xTA5JA8L3.
There are hundreds of comments under the post, but I couldn't find anyone calculating/comparing P(O|I & not E), P(O|not E), P(I|O & not E), P(I|not E). Yudkowsky's model would suggest that the first should be less than the second and the third should be less than the fourth, but actually, the two pairs are approximately equal. People calculated those with E instead of not E, and it works out fine; I suspect that the numbers in the data have not been generated to let the reader correctly infer the causal graph.
Is this a real mistake, or am I missing something?
Resolves Yes if Yudkowsky says it's a real mistake.
Otherwise, resolves to an opinion of a majority of >4 people who've read Pearl's book on Probabilistic Inference, if the opinion of a majority exists.
Otherwise, resolve to a consensus among people who've read the sequence, if it exists.
Otherwise, resolves No if Yudkowsky says it's not a mistake.
Otherwise, resolves No if someone persuades me it's not a mistake.
Otherwise, resolves N/A.
(Please don't make dishonest statements to manipulate the market.)
(I'm not going to hold a No position on this market.)
If the mistake is left intentionally, it still counts as a mistake for the purpose of this market.
Edit: for the purpose of the resolution criteria, anyone legitimately saying something on behalf of Yudkowsky counts as Yudkowsky saying that
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