Resolves as YES if a US citizen with a net worth of US$1 billion or greater is convicted of a felony before 2026.

The citizen’s net worth must be above or equal to US$1 billion before charges are filed. If the citizen loses their wealth subsequent to the charges, they will still be counted as a “billionaire” for the purposes of this question.

Resolves as YES if any of the above is true:

— billionaire pleads guilty;

— billionaire is found guilty at trial;

— billionaire is tried and convicted in absentia.

The billionaire can be convicted of a felony in the justice system of any sovereign state, not just the United States. If the definition of “felony” is unclear in a non-US state, it will be considered a “felony” if an equivalent or equally-serious crime in the USA is a felony.

Calculating a person’s net worth can be difficult, so the criteria determining whether someone is a billionaire will be somewhat loose. If the citizen is described as a billionaire in a reputable newspaper or magazine (including Forbes or Fortune) then that will be sufficient.

Relevant related markets: https://manifold.markets/mr22222222/elon-musk-convicted-of-a-felony-bef

https://manifold.markets/mr22222222/sbf-convicted-of-a-felony-before-20

I will not create any other “X convicted of felony before 2026” markets to avoid clogging the marketplace with markets that are too similar.

I believe having these three similar markets is justified for the following reasons:

SBF is a pioneer in a financial technology field that is associated with many scams and money-laundering schemes. The question about him is a way of measuring whether cryptocurrency entrepreneurs are at risk of being convicted of a crime because they are involved in a controversial new industry.

Elon Musk’s business practices are controversial. His critics (#TSLAQ on Twitter and elsewhere) believe he acts as if he is above the law. That question is a way of measuring whether they are right.

This question is a more general question that measures whether affluent Americans are more or less likely to commit crimes or be convicted of crimes.

Oct 7, 7:19pm: US citizen billionaire convicted of felony before 2026 → Billionaire US citizen convicted of felony before 2026