MANIFOLD
Where are the hidden pieces in this chess position? [Chess Puzzle #2]
6
Ṁ800Ṁ931
resolved Dec 7
Resolved
YES
a3
Resolved
YES
a5
Resolved
YES
a8
Resolved
YES
b7
Resolved
YES
c5
Resolved
YES
d1
Resolved
YES
e2
Resolved
YES
e5
Resolved
YES
e7
Resolved
YES
f3
Resolved
YES
g1
Resolved
YES
g8
Resolved
NO
a1
Resolved
NO
a2
Resolved
NO
a7
Resolved
NO
b1
Resolved
NO
b2
Resolved
NO
b3
Resolved
NO
b8
Resolved
NO
c3

I have chosen a chess position. Can you guess where the hidden pieces are?

The position is puzzle-like position based on an engine self-play game starting from a prescribed opening, where black has deviated from the engine line in a way that allows white to gain a game-winning advantage. It is white's move and there is only one best move in this position.

The board is partially hidden, as follows:

- All of the squares containing pawns are revealed.

- All of the squares containing non-pawn pieces are initially hidden.

- A randomly chosen selection of empty squares are also initially hidden.

- Hidden squares are represented by a circle.

The purpose of this market is to guess which hidden squares have pieces. There's a sister market for guessing what the best move is here: https://manifold.markets/moobunny/whats-the-best-move-in-the-hidden-c

Each day, around 2 PM Pacific time, I will check which square has the highest probability in this market and resolve it, to YES if there is a piece in that square and NO if it's empty. Ties will be resolved alphabetically. If the square is empty, I will repeat with the next highest, then the next, and so on until a piece is revealed. When all options are resolved, I will immediately resolve the sister market. Then I'll post a comment revealing what's in the resolved squares.

I will not bet in this market.

Salted MD5 of the position for verification: 7fafcfdb794e1a785fffa12d31df6077

Happy hunting!

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All remaining squares are in fact empty! Thank you all for playing!

@moobunny

Oh, and the verification string for the MD5 above:

Salt: 54897264

FEN: r5k1/1b2qppp/pp2p3/nPn1B3/2P5/Q3PN2/4BPPP/3R2K1 w - - 1 21

Bd6 Qe8
BxN(c5) PxB(c5)
QxN(a5) axb5 (attacks Q with R)
Qxb5
Piece gained

@ChristopherRandles My stockfish prefers 1. ... Nxc4 to counterattack while disposing of the weakness of the overloaded pawn; white has several options including 2. Qxc5 (!); white ends up up a piece regardless.

Day 11:

There is a black bishop at b7!

@ChristopherRandles yes, thank you, that was a typo. b7 is correct.

bought Ṁ30 NO

@moobunny Nothing else seems likely now.

Day 11:

b3, c3, and a7 are empty.

There is a white bishop at e5!

Day 10:

c7 and f6 are empty.

There is a white bishop at e2!

Day 9:

e1 is empty.

There is a black queen at e7!

Whoops, forgot about this! One sec

Day 8:

There is a black knight at c5!

Day 7:

d3 and e4 are empty.

There is a white knight at f3!

Day 6:

b1 and b8 are empty.

There is a black knight at a5!

Day 5:

There is a white rook at d1!

Day 4, early because I'm going to be away in the afternoon:

There is a black king at g8!

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