I have chosen a chess position. Can you guess where the hidden pieces are?
The position is puzzle-like position based on an engine self-play game starting from a prescribed opening, where black has deviated from the engine line in a way that allows white to gain a game-winning advantage. It is white's move and there is only one best move in this position.
The board is partially hidden, as follows:
- All of the squares containing pawns are revealed.
- All of the squares containing non-pawn pieces are initially hidden.
- A randomly chosen selection of empty squares are also initially hidden.
- Hidden squares are represented by a circle.
The purpose of this market is to guess which hidden squares have pieces. There's a sister market for guessing what the best move is here: https://manifold.markets/moobunny/whats-the-best-move-in-the-hidden-c
Each day, around 2 PM Pacific time, I will check which square has the highest probability in this market and resolve it, to YES if there is a piece in that square and NO if it's empty. Ties will be resolved alphabetically. If the square is empty, I will repeat with the next highest, then the next, and so on until a piece is revealed. When all options are resolved, I will immediately resolve the sister market. Then I'll post a comment revealing what's in the resolved squares.
I will not bet in this market.
Salted MD5 of the position for verification: 7fafcfdb794e1a785fffa12d31df6077
Happy hunting!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ44 | |
| 2 | Ṁ40 | |
| 3 | Ṁ26 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 |
Oh, and the verification string for the MD5 above:
Salt: 54897264
FEN: r5k1/1b2qppp/pp2p3/nPn1B3/2P5/Q3PN2/4BPPP/3R2K1 w - - 1 21
@ChristopherRandles My stockfish prefers 1. ... Nxc4 to counterattack while disposing of the weakness of the overloaded pawn; white has several options including 2. Qxc5 (!); white ends up up a piece regardless.
Day 11:

There is a black bishop at b7!
Day 9:

e1 is empty.
There is a black queen at e7!
















