On Jan 27th, 2026, at a town hall event, a man appears to have sprayed Rep. Ilhan Omar with some kind of substance before being tackled: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/after-town-hall-attack-ilhan-omar-condemns-terrorizing-immigration-push-and-criticism-from-gop/ar-AA1V7OVt
This market resolves NO if the substance was something relatively inoffensive like water or milk. This market resolves YES it was anything that could be or was intended to be dangerous, like acid or a virus, or something disgusting or otherwise offensive. This is true regardless of whether she or anybody else was actually harmed in the attack. If I don’t see convincing evidence one way or another by the close of the market in a week, this market will resolve 50-50 and will not re-resolve based on later evidence.
Update 2026-01-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Urine would resolve YES - it qualifies as "disgusting or otherwise offensive" under the resolution criteria.
Apple cider vinegar would resolve NO, if confirmed.
Update 2026-01-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If no conflicting evidence emerges by 5:00 PM PST on January 28th, 2026, the market will resolve NO based on multiple confirmations that the substance was apple cider vinegar.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ268 | |
| 2 | Ṁ244 | |
| 3 | Ṁ150 | |
| 4 | Ṁ119 | |
| 5 | Ṁ69 |
People are also trading
@moobunny Vinegar is an acid. Please don’t spray anyone with it assuming it’s inoffensive, like water or milk. It can still cause eye injuries, including damage to the cornea. Just to be clear, I think the resolution is wrong, but it likely matches the way most market participants understand the situation.
@moobunny just thinking this through (and I'm not disputing your resolution - I'm just resolving some cognitive dissonance for myself), but I think the context matters.
In my mind, the intent creates the danger, disgust, or offensiveness.
A bullet on a counter in a gunshop; or a sperm sample in a fertility clinic; or bacon fat on a plate after a burger meal aren't dangerous; disgusting; or offensive in those contexts.
But you can easily see how those COULD be dangerous; disgusting; or offensive in other contexts.
So ACV isn't generally offensive in most contexts, but to me it was intended to be in this context.
I'll leave it there, just wanted to debrief.
All the best, Lobstertronic.
@Lobstertronic Which is why, I think, one of the witnesses vomited—outside the context of a meal and during a moment of intense stress, the sudden strong smell is interpreted differently.
Thanks everyone! I think this resolution is a fair assessment of the state of public information at the moment, and I won't change this resolution even if new information comes to light. This is my first time running a market like this, so thank you all for bearing with me. I've learned some lessons for next time if I ever do another.
https://www.startribune.com/minneapolis-police-say-fbi-has-taken-over-lead-in-investigating-ilhan-omar-being-sprayed-with-liquid/601572438
> The criminal complaint noted that the liquid in the syringe was water and apple cider vinegar. Minneapolis police body camera video captured Kazmierczak saying “I squirted vinegar” at the time of his arrest that night.
From the complaint, as published by NYT:

I remain convinced and will resolve at 5 PM Pacific Time if nothing else comes up.
@ChurlishGambit They're doing further tests; I set a 24 hour timer just to see if any complications or disputes arose and I'm glad I did even though nothing has come up.
@moobunny If anything, next time I do this I wouldn't do an early resolution even if things seemed similarly cut-and-dry.
@moobunny Early resolution's usually a mistake, though lots of people on this site seem to prefer it.
Also, not that it's very important, but the phrase is "cut & dried." As in, herbs prepared for sale, that you have cut & dried.
@Cogsdoc I’ve already clarified that vinegar would resolve NO. More or less on the basis that if you spilled it on yourself while having lunch, it would be a nuisance rather than something that would seriously upset you. Having it sprayed on you by a stranger is of course another matter, but that’s not what’s at stake here.
@moobunny will have to agree to disagree. Based on this part in your description “something disgusting or otherwise offensive.”
Hard to make the argument that this wouldn’t meet that criteria. If you spill vinegar on yourself and go to work, I think people are going to give you wide berth. How then is it not offensive?
@Cogsdoc This market resolves NO if the substance was something relatively inoffensive like water or milk. This market resolves YES it was anything that could be or was intended to be dangerous, like acid or a virus, or something disgusting or otherwise offensive
It wasn’t intended to be dangerous like acid. Vinegar is much closer to water/milk than acid/virus.
It seems the questions intention was about if something was genuinely dangerous, not if someone didn’t like the smell of it
@Jack1 certain smells by definition are offensive. Water and milk (unless it’s spoiled) are not offensive smells. Vinegar most certainly is.
@Cogsdoc it’s not dangerous. Criteria says to resolve yes, it was anything that could be or was intended to be dangerous.
@Cogsdoc “Offensive” does include things that are not genuinely dangerous, and there are things that would easily reach that threshold on smell alone—skunk musk, for example. Vinegar is somewhere around the borderline there, but the fact that it is a common food and is easy to clean push it towards NO. (I also happen to like the smell of vinegar. The fact that this is a matter of opinion is a sign that this does not qualify as “offensive”.) Also, while you’re free to discuss it, at this point I am not persuadable on this.
@moobunny not trying to persuade. Like I said will agree to disagree. My reaction to the smell of vinegar is so aversive that I hadn’t even considered someone could like it.
@moobunny where did you state that when you posed the question. I would find vinegar being splashed on my very offensive. You would have to change your clothes and have them cleaned. Offensive doesn’t mean toxic. Your resolution is counter factual.
@MontereyFlash This is one of the reasons I was quick to clarify as soon as any substance was mentioned, because it’s inherently subjective and contextual. I did state that milk would count as a NO, even though I would hate to be splashed with milk by a stranger, and you would have to change your clothes and clean them if you were.
@moobunny I think you are flat out wrong. Milk doesn’t reek. Maybe you should splash some vinegar on yourself. Your resolution makes no sense.
@MontereyFlash given you liked my comment, I think you misunderstood it.
Piss would be offensive. Vinegar is a nuisance even though it might smell more depending on what piss and what vinegar.
@AlexanderTheGreater you probably shouldn’t unless you have legitimate criteria.
I think that piss might be MORE OFFENSIVE than Vinegar but they are n both offensive.