The result will be based on the aggregated betting odds provided by Real Clear Politics: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/
The goal is to predict the first time in 2024 that Biden passes Trump. If you believe that this will occur multiple times then predict the first month it will happen. If you belive it will not happen then predict "Never".
1,000π Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ438 | |
| 2 | αΉ97 | |
| 3 | αΉ95 | |
| 4 | αΉ13 | |
| 5 | αΉ8 |
Does anyone know if it is possible to resolve individual options of the question to NO? At the end of January I would like to resolve January as NO if Biden has not passed Trump in the betting odds, since it can no longer resolve to YES it should have a probability of 0% (giving more probability to the other options). What is the correct way to do this?
@mjmandl - I think it depends on how you set up your market. When you create a multiple choice market, you're given the option to resolve the market to one answer (dependent variables) or multiple answers (independent variables). The market you have set up now uses dependent variables (look under the three dots). AFAIK, there's no way to get a market to switch between independent and dependent variables (but if there is I need to find out because I messed up like 20+ markets by setting them to the wrong type π)
@LukasDay dependent variables is the correct option for this market because all the percentages should add up to 100%. I am trying to find a way to resolve one option to NO when it is no longer possible. For example in February the Jan option should be 0% (resolved to NO). I think they have yet to add this function.
@LukasDay I could be wrong tho. I'm trying to achieve a similar outcome - I created a market that covers both primary and general elections, and I want to eliminate options after the primary without resolving the entire market.
@LukasDay here is a market that tries to predict when this functionality will be added π: https://manifold.markets/FlorisvanDoorn/when-will-manifold-markets-allow-us?r=bWptYW5kbA
@mjmandl - well this just absolutely ruined my day
Reached to manifold on Discord and they confirmed that A) creating markets with independent options (Answer Many) allows options to resolve without resolving the whole market and B) no way to convert between the two.
gently screams into the void