https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-seriously-should-we-take-marianne-williamson-and-robert-f-kennedy-jr-against-biden/

the 2024 Democratic primary isn’t even a race, and pretending that it is does a disservice to readers
...

CNN/SSRS asked Democrats who said they would consider supporting Kennedy why they might do so, and a plurality (20 percent) said the Kennedy name and his family connections. An additional 10 percent said it was just because they were open-minded and would consider any candidate. Only 12 percent specifically pointed to his views and policies. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2023/06/14/robert-f-kennedy-jr-tops-biden-trump-in-new-favorability-poll/?sh=3042073d4395

How could he win the nomination and NOT be a serious contender? LOL.

@AaronKreider the question is meant to be BOTH things

@mistersplice Will 1 = 1 and will the moon turn yellow? It's much easier to say "will the moon turn yellow".

@AaronKreider My definition of serious contender is any nominee of the Democrat or Republican party (and a third party candidate who is polling > 10%). When was the last time a Democratic party nominee wasn't a serious contender?

@AaronKreider what if he loses the Democrat vote and runs as an Independent?

@mistersplice Then he lost the primary.

https://twitter.com/TheChiefNerd/status/1665889177429331969

https://twitter.com/jack/status/1665460519719895042

I’d love to know why/how my market is changing without anyone betting on it