Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before March 15, 2024, credible sources report that data cable infrastructure in the Red Sea has suffered damage caused by a hostile actor.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
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@DanMan314 agree
scenarios I think worth considering:
intentional hostile action by houthis that they now regret for some reason
e.g. maybe they thought they were going after different cables that didn't directly impact Yemen so much?
e.g. maybe a "non coordinated" element within the Houthis did it against head honchos orders
unintentional hostile action by houthis (e.g. maybe damaged as an accidental side-effect of trying to attack something else?)
intentional hostile action by non-houthi parties (cables have been damaged/destroyed by pirates before)
non-hostile accident, e.g. anchor drag
@DanMan314 https://twitter.com/tagaresunil/status/1762574843399295079 I'm fairly confident that this guy is the bottom of the citation chain for this series of news articles, and he's changed his mind.