Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve Yes if the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports Israeli military operations on its map at any of six locations surrounding Rafah (the specific locations are shown in the map embedded below) before June 1, 2024.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.