Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

For this question to resolve as "Yes", Israel and Hamas must, before November 5th, 2024, agree to a ceasefire, truce, armistice, surrender, humanitarian pause, or any other agreement involving the cessation of all military activity between the two parties in Israel and Gaza. If Israel and Hamas reach an agreement to pause the conflict, this question will be resolved 30 days after the agreement goes into effect, provided that both parties remain committed to the agreement.

If there is a violation of an agreement that leads either side to no longer commit to the agreement, this is not enough alone to resolve "No". The question will only resolve "No" if:

• There was no agreement that was signed (or otherwise took effect) at least by November 4th 11:59PM PDT, or

• Said agreement did not start effect at least by December 4th 11:59PM PDT, or

• Said agreement did not end up lasting >=30 days by January 4th 11:59PM PDT.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.