Will GPT-5 be released by December 31, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Kalshi.
Resolution criteria
If GPT-5 has been created before 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution sources
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ269 | |
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| 3 | Ṁ7 | |
| 4 | Ṁ4 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3 |
From the Kalshi rules PDF:
> The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that OpenAI has announced the creation of a new large language model named GPT-5.
So, this is about whether the creation is announced by OpenAI in 2024, not whether the creation actually happened in 2024, or whether the actual release happened in 2024.
https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/regulatory/product-certifications/GPT5.pdf