[Kalshi] OpenAI no longer top LLM in 2024?
8
180Ṁ4229resolved Dec 14
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
OpenAI no longer top LLM in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Kalshi.
Resolution criteria
If OpenAI no longer is the top ranked LLM before Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution sources
https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ111 | |
| 2 | Ṁ54 | |
| 3 | Ṁ5 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
People are also trading
Related questions
OpenAI maintains top position on LiveBench by August 25, 2025?
58% chance
What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
70% chance
OpenAI to release model weights by EOY?
90% chance
Which AI companies will release a SoTA LLM on AidanBench in 2025?
In Jan 2027, will the top 3 leading AI labs be offering fewer than 15 flagship LLMs between them?
65% chance
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?
Will OpenAI still be considered one of the top players in AI by end of 2025
98% chance
Will the next major LLM by OpenAI use a new tokenizer?
77% chance
Will xAI rank above OpenAI at EOY?
23% chance