Will Lloyd Austin be fired in January?
Will Lloyd Austin be fired in January?
19
350Ṁ4104resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
If U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is dismissed or fired by U.S. President Joe Biden, this market will resolve to YES. If his dismissal is announced in January but not effective until after January, that is also sufficient to resolve to YES.
If Lloyd Austin is still Secretary of Defense, or if Lloyd Austin resigns, this market resolves to NO on February 1st, 2024. If he resigns but it is reported he was pushed out by Biden, that is still not sufficient to resolve as YES.
Related market for his resignation:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.