When will there be an Israel-Hamas temporary ceasefire?
💎
Premium
412
Ṁ190k
Jan 1
3%
December 1st or earlier
7%
January 1st or earlier
93%
No ceasefire in 2024
Resolved
NO
May 1st or earlier
Resolved
NO
June 1st or earlier
Resolved
NO
July 1st or earlier
Resolved
NO
August 1st or earlier
Resolved
NO
September 1st or earlier
Resolved
NO
October 1st or earlier
Resolved
NO
November 1st or earlier

Each answer will resolve YES if there is a ceasefire announced between Israel and Hamas before the listed date, and fighting actually stops for atleast one day. The ceasefire, truce, or pause, must be reported by reputable sources and confirmed by Israel and Hamas. The actual stop in fighting can be confirmed by official sources and/or open source intelligence. Each answer will also resolve YES if the war ends before the listed date, and hostilities between Hamas and Israel end. As soon as each date passes (Israel time) without a ceasefire, that answer resolves NO.

Remember: Multiple options can resolve YES. So if there is a ceasefire announced on July 16th, "August 1st or earlier" AND all later answers resolve YES.

If by January 1st, 2025 there is no ceasefire, "No ceasefire in 2024" will resolve YES, and all other markets will have already resolved NO.

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Keep fucking trying. ~Joe Biden

"Each answer will also resolve YES if the war ends before the listed date, and hostilities between Hamas and Israel end."

Err what does this mean? Even once Sinwar is dead, hostiles between Hamas and Israel won't end. There will be still random Hamas guerillas.

@nathanwei This is referring to a formal end of the war, more like a "permanent ceasefire" in terms of this market, which would be acknowledged by both sides. If Sinwar is killed, it likely wouldn't mean the war miraculously ends, just like it didn't when Haniyeh was killed. If Hamas becomes beaten so badly they don't have much means to conduct formal warfare beyond random guerillas, but at the same don't acknowledge defeat and are still trying to conduct attacks (even if limited), it won't count as the war ending.

@mint According to multiple media outlets, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a 3 day pause in fighting so the U.N. and other health agencies can administer polio vaccines. Would you count this?

@ReeMARKable according to CNN:

“We have a preliminary commitment for area-specific humanitarian pauses during the campaign,” he said, adding that the pauses will roll out first in “central Gaza for three days, followed by south Gaza and then followed by north Gaza.”

If this is what ends up happening, it won't be enough for this market. These are pauses only for certain regions, while fighting continues elsewhere. This isn't much different for when Israel sets up humanitarian or evacuation corridors, which happens every so often.

If there was a pause in fighting across the entire region for 3 days to administer polio vaccines, it would count.

@mint I understand. Thank you for the quick reply.

If there's a deal I say we give Scotland full credit.

Hamas will suddenly agree to a deal once they realize it means Bibi has to talk to Scottish politicians again. It's a worse fate than anything they can inflict.

pretty hard to imagine a ceasefire with terms that both side agree to

The problem is that to some degree both sides think they're winning by fighting more - when Israel hits a Hamas outpost, Israel gets a win because it took out some terrorists, and Hamas gets a win because they can say "look they're bombing us" and get more money and support.

reposted

I'm subsidizing this market and putting it on the front page, given today's news:

Joint Statement from the United States, Egypt, and Qatar

Over the last 48 hours in Doha, senior officials from our governments have engaged in intensive talks as mediators aiming to conclude the agreement for a ceasefire and release of hostages and detainees. These talks were serious and constructive and were conducted in a positive atmosphere. Earlier today in Doha, the United States with support from Egypt and Qatar, presented to both parties a bridging proposal that is consistent with the principles laid out by President Biden on May 31, 2024 and Security Council Resolution No. 2735. This proposal builds on areas of agreement over the past week, and bridges remaining gaps in the manner that allows for a swift implementation of the deal.   

Working teams will continue technical work over the coming days on the details of implementation, including arrangements to implement the agreement’s extensive humanitarian provisions, as well as specifics relating to hostages and detainees.

Senior officials from our governments will reconvene in Cairo before the end of next week with the aim to conclude the deal under the terms put forward today. As the leaders of the three countries stated last week, “There is no further time to waste nor excuses from any party for further delay.  It is time to release the hostages and detainees, begin the ceasefire, and implement this agreement.”

The path is now set for that outcome, saving lives, bringing relief to the people of Gaza, and de-escalating regional tensions.

and just like that, back to the drawing board 🙁

yeahhh that was fast

In all seriousness, it looks like the problem is that Hamas is categorically opposed to any deal that will impede their ability to rearm. Westerners think of this as a first step towards peace; Hamas thinks of this as a chance to catch their breath so they can fight even harder tomorrow (ideally against civilians and not soldiers this time).

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-names-sinwar-as-new-leader-following-haniyehs-assassination/

Yeah, definitely no ceasefire for a while (at a minimum until they're forced into another leadership election)

August 1st or earlier

@mint Resolves No?

it's called a temporary ceasefire

right (But I doubt Biden would need this ceasefire anymore...

Please stop making every problem in the world about your election.

it's just reality

bought Ṁ8 December 1st or earlier YES

One of the big sticking points is that Israel wants to reserve the right to keep fighting if Hamas goes back on its word in some way, like doesn't release all the hostages they say they will. Hamas wants Israel to be committed to not fighting even if the ceasefire doesn't go completely in line with the agreement conditions.

January 1st or earlier

@mint If there's a ceasefire on Jan 1st, will both this and "Not in 2024" resolve YES?

Good catch. Yes, they would both resolve YES.

It just hit me, for next year (hoping we don't need one), perhaps label the options "By February 1st) etc?

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