MANIFOLD
How many pre-orders will Yudkowsky and Soares' book receive? (Threshold)
28
Ṁ1.2kṀ3.8k
resolved Jan 12
Resolved
~7,500 pre-orders
Resolved
YES
Above 0
Resolved
YES
Above 5,000
Resolved
NO
Above 35,000
Resolved
NO
Above 30,000
Resolved
NO
Above 25,000
Resolved
NO
Above 10,000
Resolved
NO
Above 15,000
Resolved
NO
Above 20,000

https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/

  • Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator does not know how many pre-orders there were, which may affect the ability to resolve this market based on the actual pre-order count.

  • Update 2025-10-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The pre-order count includes all formats (hardcover, ebook, and audiobook).

  • Update 2025-10-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will resolve this market by asking Eliezer Yudkowsky or Nate Soares for the pre-order count.

Market context
AI
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Books
If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

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#TraderTotal profit
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How many pre-orders did y'all get? @So8res @EliezerYudkowsky

@ian I tried on Twitter as well: https://x.com/evanbd/status/2009070589441630606

@ian US preorders exceeded 5k but were shy of 10k. The UK didn't break their "first week sales" numbers down by preorder count; I just asked them to. I don't know whether the US+UK total is over 10k. I'm pretty confident the total was not over 15k.

@So8res Thanks Nate! I appreciate the response and openess

@ian US+UK total was slightly below 10k.

@So8res Congrats on all the preorders! And thanks again for the stats

@So8res congratulations, and thanks for the updates!

@mods NA this please as there seems to be no path to resolution.

@MRME let's see if they respond on here

@creator please na at this point. There is no resolution anywhere in sight as far as I can tell.

@MarioBeth maybe just NA at this point?

@metachirality what is your plan for resolving this?

@MRME ask eliezer yudkowsky or nate soares

@metachirality when do you plan on resolving this?

@metachirality can this be resolved yet?

@MRME Unfortunately I don't know how many pre-orders there were

@metachirality so will you NA the market? Or what is the plan?

@metachirality, is the number of preorders counting all formats (hardcover, ebook, and audiobook)?

@Malo yes

bought Ṁ50 NO

Bucket version of this market: https://manifold.markets/metachirality/how-many-preorders-will-yudkowsky-a?play=true

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