How many pre-orders will Yudkowsky and Soares' book receive? (Threshold)
28
1.2kṀ3766
Sep 17
14,298 pre-orders
expected
99.0%
Above 5,000
65%
Above 10,000
49%
Above 15,000
15%
Above 20,000
7%
Above 25,000
0.9%
Above 30,000
0.9%
Above 35,000

https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/

  • Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator does not know how many pre-orders there were, which may affect the ability to resolve this market based on the actual pre-order count.

  • Update 2025-10-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The pre-order count includes all formats (hardcover, ebook, and audiobook).

  • Update 2025-10-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will resolve this market by asking Eliezer Yudkowsky or Nate Soares for the pre-order count.

Market context
AI
Books
Eliezer Yudkowsky
If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

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How many pre-orders did y'all get? @So8res @EliezerYudkowsky

@ian I tried on Twitter as well: https://x.com/evanbd/status/2009070589441630606

@mods NA this please as there seems to be no path to resolution.

@MRME let's see if they respond on here

@creator please na at this point. There is no resolution anywhere in sight as far as I can tell.

@MarioBeth maybe just NA at this point?

@metachirality what is your plan for resolving this?

@MRME ask eliezer yudkowsky or nate soares

@metachirality when do you plan on resolving this?

@metachirality can this be resolved yet?

@MRME Unfortunately I don't know how many pre-orders there were

@metachirality so will you NA the market? Or what is the plan?

@metachirality, is the number of preorders counting all formats (hardcover, ebook, and audiobook)?

@Malo yes

bought Ṁ50 NO

Bucket version of this market: https://manifold.markets/metachirality/how-many-preorders-will-yudkowsky-a?play=true

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