Will Russia accuse Ukraine of being behind the Moscow Concert terrorist attack by the end of April?
107
721
1.3K
May 3
70%
chance

Resolves yes if the Kremlin officially say the Ukrainian government was behind today's attack in Moscow? Resolves to NO if they just say the people behind it were pro-Ukraine but not affiliated with Ukraine or if the person who makes the claim is someone in the Russian government but is not Vladimir Putin, or an official statement from the Kremlin.

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How would you resolve if you market ended today?

Would you extend the market until a later date? Are there scenarios in which you'd extend the May 3rd deadline?

I know very little of this, but I would expect these kinds of markets to go gradually down over time and only go up in jerks

bought Ṁ25 NO from 81% to 80%

More interesting question is who is really behind the attacks: FSB, ISIS, GRU, CIA, X?

I have a question. Let politics be a side.

There are definitely direct accusations coming from high-ups in Russia:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68663043

Top Russian officials have directly accused Ukraine and the West of being involved in the deadly Moscow concert hall attack, after it was claimed by the Islamic State (IS) group.

[...]

One of Mr Putin's longest-serving allies, security council secretary Nikolai Patrushev, doubled down on Mr Putin's claim on Tuesday when he was asked whether IS or Ukraine was behind the attack: "Of course, Ukraine."

Then the head of Russia's FSB security service, Alexander Bortnikov, went further.

"We believe the action was prepared both by the radical Islamists themselves and, obviously, facilitated by Western special services. Ukraine's special services themselves have a direct connection to this."

However, regarding the actual requirements for the market, there isn't an official statement from the Kremlin, and Putin's comments have been less definitive:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/25/russias-putin-says-radical-islamists-behind-moscow-concert-hall-attack

“We know that the crime was committed by the hands of radical Islamists, whose ideology the Islamic world itself has been fighting for centuries,” Putin said in a televised meeting on Monday.

“This atrocity may be just a link in a whole series of attempts by those who have been at war with our country since 2014 with the hands of the neo-Nazi Kyiv regime,” he said, referring to Ukraine.

“Of course, it is necessary to answer the question, ‘Why after committing the crime the terrorists tried to go to Ukraine?’ Who was waiting for them there?” Putin asked.

“He [Putin] then claimed that Kyiv may have paid or otherwise convinced the Islamist group to carry out the attack.”

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-suggests-kyiv-ordered-isis-commit-moscow-terror-attack-1883337

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