This is fusing two Polymarkets: Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30? and Crimean bridge hit before October?
This market will Resolve YES if Ukraine hits Moscow, or anyone hits the Crimean Bridge before October. Will either Polymarket Resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces strikes Moscow or any target within the municipality between August 27 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow causing damage, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Crimean Bridge (Kerch Bridge) is the subject of a kinetic strike between August 27 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Missile/drone strikes which are shot down or don't hit the bridge will not be considered for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ158 | |
| 2 | Ṁ69 | |
| 3 | Ṁ50 | |
| 4 | Ṁ43 | |
| 5 | Ṁ17 |
It should be noted that one of the markets has hit 100% odds on Polymarket and is being disputed now.
@mattyb Is this market's resolution based solely on the resolution of the Polymarket markets?
@mattyb Ukraine drones attacked Moscow on September 1st, but apparently damage was only caused by the destruction of the drones, not by the attack itself.
From the Polymarket description:
For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow causing damage, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.