Will the Gaza Polio campaign go (mostly) successfully?

1kṀ3417

resolved May 13

Resolved

YES

ALL

It has begun! May it go smoothly and successfully Pause in fighting holds as Gaza children get polio vaccine

@traders extended for another month. In maybe the only good story in the Middle East rn, this seems to be going really well. The conditions for a yes are >~= 400k children getting two doses, and “Around 560 000 children vaccinated in first round of polio campaign in Gaza“ (per WHO two weeks ago)! At minimum, this market will Resolve >~50% now, depending on what happens next! Per Reuters, The second round of a vaccination campaign to protect 640,000 children in Gaza against polio will also deliver micronutrients - essential vitamins and minerals - and conduct nutritional screening, a senior U.N. Children's Fund official said. The first round of the polio vaccination campaign, which began on Sept. 1, reached its target of 90% of children under 10 years of age, the head of the United Nations Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA) said on Monday. It was carried out in phases over two weeks during humanitarian pauses in the fighting between Israel and Palestinian militants Hamas. A second round of the polio vaccinations has to be carried out within four weeks. So we should know by the end of October how well round 2 went.

@traders ive extended this another month, as the next phase appears to just now be kicking off. From the WHO today: Polio vaccination campaign to resume in northern Gaza A third phase of the polio vaccination campaign is set to begin tomorrow in part of the northern Gaza Strip after being postponed from 23 October 2024 due to lack of access and assured, comprehensive humanitarian pauses, intense bombardment, and mass evacuation orders. These conditions made it impossible for families to safely bring their children for vaccination and to organize campaign activities. The humanitarian pause necessary to conduct the campaign has been assured; however, the area of the pause has been substantially reduced compared to the first round of vaccination in northern Gaza, conducted in September 2024. It is now limited to just Gaza City. Though in the past few weeks, at least 100 000 people have been forced to evacuate from North Gaza towards Gaza City for safety, around 15 000 children under ten years in towns in North Gaza like Jabalia, Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun still remain inaccessible and will be missed during the campaign, compromising its effectiveness. To interrupt poliovirus transmission, at least 90% of all children in every community and neighborhood must be vaccinated. This will be challenging to achieve given the situation. The final phase of the campaign had aimed to reach an estimated 119 000 children under ten years old in northern Gaza with a second dose of novel oral polio vaccine type 2 (nOPV2). However, achieving this target is now unlikely due to access constraints It seems that the expectations for the final round have been lowered bc of the fighting.

Context: Israel agrees to pauses in fighting in Gaza for polio vaccination

Israel has agreed to a series of pauses in fighting in Gaza in September to allow young children in the enclave to be vaccinated for polio, according to United Nations and Israeli officials.
The polio campaign, which will aim to vaccinate around 640,000 children across Gaza, comes after the highly infectious virus was found in sewage samples in the Strip in June.
Rik Peeperkorn, the World Health Organization’s (WHO) representative for the West Bank and Gaza, told a press briefing from a video link Thursday that the pause would start September 1 and will be split into three 3-day phases.

“We have a preliminary commitment for area-specific humanitarian pauses during the campaign,” he said, adding that the pauses will roll out first in “central Gaza for three days, followed by south Gaza and then followed by north Gaza.”

Will this plan go (mostly) successfully?

This may involve a subjective call, so I won’t be trading here.

Examples of how I’ll Resolve this:

They’re able to hit all three stages, and can vaccinate >400k children => YES
They’re able to hit all three stages, but can only vaccinate ~100k children => 75%
They’re only able to reach one stage, and vaccinate ~50k children => 30-40% (depending on the reasons why)

Israel

Arab-Israeli Conflict

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Gaza

Palestine

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