When will Russia be safe for an American to visit again? ๐บ๐ธโ๏ธ๐ท๐บ
When will Russia be safe for an American to visit again? ๐บ๐ธโ๏ธ๐ท๐บ
12
100แน2522041
5%
By 2024
20%
By 2025
26%
By 2026
37%
By 2027
66%
By 2030
76%
By 2035
95%
By 2040
The US State department puts out travel advisories for every country in the world. Russia is a Level 4: Do Not Travel. When will Russia be safe for an American to visit again (defined as being below Level 4 for longer than a week)?
Selfishly, my parents were able to visit in 2018, and as someone who intends to visit the entire world, I need to make it to Russia. When can I visit without a (large) fear of being kidnapped and held as a geopolitical pawn?
Resolves YES for all open answers when Russia is Level <=3 for one consecutive week. Resolves NO for each answer on January 1st of the succeeding year.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEightโs performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (แน) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with แน1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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