i didnt list a resolution source here, so i used the AP who has Trump at 50.9%, smack dab in the middle of 50-52, so I feel comfortable resolving this now, with the election called.

@mattyb HM it seemed early.

He's expected to win the popular vote by between 0 to 4% (90% chance between 1% and 3%) per polymarket.

So assuming 1.5% third party.

That mean he needs to win by at least 1.5% which isn't guaranteed to happen

https://polymarket.com/event/popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election?tid=1730943910598

@ChinmayTheMathGuy 3.3% is the current span right now with him at 50.9% and her at 47.6%. i’m not sure what point you’re making

@mattyb the remaining votes are mail in etc which skew democratic.

There's a significant chance he'll finish with <50% when the remaining 10M+ votes are counted.

suppose Trump wins 40% of the mostly mail vote.

Then that's 78.5M votes out of 157.5M

which is less than 50%

@ChinmayTheMathGuy sg, lmk when that happens, and i’ll unresolve it

@mattyb OK looked more into it and California only 55% in, so final Trump's vote share is expected to be something like 50.1% +/- 0.25%

if I made a market for Trump to win the majority of the popular vote it would be around 65%.

I'm not complaining (I bet on 0-60 when Biden dropped out) just saying it's way too premature and was confused.