This is fusing two Polymarkets: Ukraine strike on Moscow by Sept 30? and Crimean bridge hit before October?
This market will Resolve YES if Ukraine hits Moscow, or anyone hits the Crimean Bridge before October. If either Polymarket Resolves YES, this market will Resolve YES as well.
It should be noted that this is the second of these markets, with the first (Moscow strike) having Resolved YES once already:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces strikes Moscow or any target within the municipality between September 4 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Crimean Bridge (Kerch Bridge) is the subject of a kinetic strike between August 27 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Missile/drone strikes which are shot down or don't hit the bridge will not be considered for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.