@mods can these be resolved please?

@Spin Is there a list of proposed resolutions with evidence?

Ping the mods if you have any with evidence.

@mattyb can you resolve please?

Can these be resolved please?

@mattyb Resolves YES (Matt Gaetz, possibly others as well).

@mattyb Three have died AFAICT. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Congress_members_who_died_in_office_%282000%E2%80%93%29?wprov=sfla1

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna137101 Should be good enough for the Senate

Does this count if they seize frozen russian assets and send them to Ukraine? Or is it strictly new bottom line spending? I think the latter might be worth betting a small amount against, but the former seems pretty likely to happen.

@AndrewHartman Good question. If congress passes a bill sending any aid money to Ukraine, this should count. Frozen Russian assets (assuming this is cash) would definitely count. As would weapons / defense systems / food / …etc.

I think “aid” actually leaves open a semi-wide window. Now this has to come from Congress so Biden or the DoD can’t do this themselves and have that count.

Does that leave any ambiguity?

@Marnix I barely follow US politics, chatgpt told me this was rare 😆, curious if you think any active member in particular is likely to resign?

@TheBayesian two have already announced their resignations in 2024. If a third joins, this’ll be a YES

@TheBayesian NJ senator Bob Hernandez, who's currently being investigated for bribery (assuming senators count too)

@Marnix but with that said, it's also an election year - it's far more common to see resignations around now, with people trying to run for something else (or even just deciding they hate the place)

@Marnix ooo neat that makes sense

@TheUserU2 how does this differ from “cause a government shutdown”? If a budget isn’t passed on time, what happens?

@mattyb The US hasn't passed an actual budget via the normal (legally required, not that that matters) process since like . . . 1997? ish. They just keep passing continuing resolutions to keep the government open. Presuming the question option actually means passing a budget the correct way (and not the usual end of year all things jammed into an omnibus that nobody reads method) this should be sitting at like .5%.

@AndrewHartman sounds good. Can you update the text to say, “not a CR and not an omnibus”.

<accidentally posted twice>

@mattyb It's too late for me to edit it, but if you want to resolve it as N/A and restate the question then that should work.

@TheUserU2 turns out i had the power all along mwahaha. this way i don’t steal your trader bonuses :)

This is a good one to jump on. Multiple members have already stated their intent to resign.

@JaredHoffman Never mind. Read description.

@JaredHoffman :)

I do this on 40% of the posts I see too.

This needs specification. Does it need to be UC’d by both houses? Does voice vote in House count?

@JaredHoffman thanks for this. you’re right; this was way under-defined. @TheBayesian (fyi) as you bet on this one.

Adding this all to the description as well.

Unanimous Consent (UC) [govinfo.gov]

• The bill must pass the House or the Senate via unanimous consent. This vote must be conducted with all (present) members of the governing body, i.e. not merely passing a subcommittee via UC.

• A voice vote may count, if and only if, the audio is silent during the “all opposed” portion and there is mainstream reporting claiming this was unanimous.