Please feel free to add new ones, but I may ask for a canonical data source for your answer. Anything added after Congress has already acted will not count, let’s keep this predictive.
This market is referring to the 118th United States Congress in their second year (session ending on Jan 3rd, 2025), and all actions that they take (or don’t take).
The term “pass” is used to denote a bill becoming a law, which requires either a presidential signature and both chambers of congress’ approvals, or a 2/3 supermajority from congress overruling a presidential veto.
Data:
Laws passed by congress
118th [‘23-‘24; divided] - 31 laws (so far)
117th [‘21-‘22; Dem controlled] - 365 laws
116th [‘19-‘20; divided] - 344 laws
115th [‘17-‘18; GOP controlled] - 443 laws
Ukraine / Israel Aid
These must be new bills created in 2024, and not continuation of existing aid packages (example).
Congressional Declarations of War:
The most recent one was: Jun 4, 1942 (Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania).
Federal Agencies
Cannot have already announced their resignation (so not Brian Higgins or Bill Johnson).
Cannot be currently dead.
Since 2000, there have been 3 (2013 - divided gov’t; 2018 - GOP controlled; 2018-19 - GOP controlled).
The most recent amendment, the 27th, was introduced in 1789 and only ratified in 1992.
As amendments to the constitution can be proposed by either Congress or a national convention of the states, we will only count amendments brought forth by Congress for this market.
Filibuster changes
This could include anything from bringing back the talking filibuster to abolishing it altogether.
Congressional Leadership (Senate, House)
This would mean either the Majority / Minority Leader or Majority / Minority Whip (in either chamber), or a new Speaker of the House.
Unanimous Consent (UC) [govinfo.gov]
The bill must pass the House or the Senate via unanimous consent. This vote must be conducted with all (present) members of the governing body, i.e. not merely passing a subcommittee via UC.
A voice vote may count, if and only if, the audio is silent during the “all opposed” portion and there is mainstream reporting claiming this was unanimous.
1,000