Please feel free to add new ones, but I may ask for a canonical data source for your answer. Anything added after Congress has already acted will not count, let’s keep this predictive.
This market is referring to the 118th United States Congress in their second year (session ending on Jan 3rd, 2025), and all actions that they take (or don’t take).
The term “pass” is used to denote a bill becoming a law, which requires either a presidential signature and both chambers of congress’ approvals, or a 2/3 supermajority from congress overruling a presidential veto.
Data:
Laws passed by congress
118th [‘23-‘24; divided] - 31 laws (so far)
117th [‘21-‘22; Dem controlled] - 365 laws
116th [‘19-‘20; divided] - 344 laws
115th [‘17-‘18; GOP controlled] - 443 laws
Ukraine / Israel Aid
These must be new bills created in 2024, and not continuation of existing aid packages (example).
Congressional Declarations of War:
The most recent one was: Jun 4, 1942 (Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania).
Federal Agencies
Cannot have already announced their resignation (so not Brian Higgins or Bill Johnson).
Cannot be currently dead.
Since 2000, there have been 3 (2013 - divided gov’t; 2018 - GOP controlled; 2018-19 - GOP controlled).
The most recent amendment, the 27th, was introduced in 1789 and only ratified in 1992.
As amendments to the constitution can be proposed by either Congress or a national convention of the states, we will only count amendments brought forth by Congress for this market.
Filibuster changes
This could include anything from bringing back the talking filibuster to abolishing it altogether.
Congressional Leadership (Senate, House)
This would mean either the Majority / Minority Leader or Majority / Minority Whip (in either chamber), or a new Speaker of the House.
Unanimous Consent (UC) [govinfo.gov]
The bill must pass the House or the Senate via unanimous consent. This vote must be conducted with all (present) members of the governing body, i.e. not merely passing a subcommittee via UC.
A voice vote may count, if and only if, the audio is silent during the “all opposed” portion and there is mainstream reporting claiming this was unanimous.
1,000People are also trading
@mods I believe https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/111/all-info fits the criteria, as it was passed in the Senata on 06/22/2023 via unanimous consent and was signed into law on 07/25/2023.
@Marnix oh, good point. I just grabbed the first one. There are several as far as I can tell. I can get another when I’m back at my desk.
@mods https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Law_118-50
Covers “Yes” for both Israel and Ukraine.
@Eliza I asked Claude for help and it seems fairly good here?
I propose we resolve all the remaining ones No on this basis:
https://claude.ai/share/99a6bdb8-b7c4-4c02-876d-785bf2f74298
(Claude suggests resolving "remove an agency" as Yes but I think the timing is wrong, based on its summary.)
I'm rather liking the "Claude Research couldn't find anything" as a tool for handling absence of evidence, would be interested to hear what other people think of that approach.
@traders If anyone wants to object to my resolve-by-Claude plan, please speak up promptly! Otherwise I will resolve as mentioned sometime soon.
@EvanDaniel I would double check the
6. Remove an existing federal government office
Resolution: YES
The House rules package for the 119th Congress eliminated the Office of Diversity and Inclusion . While this technically occurred at the very beginning of 2025, it was a direct result of planning and decisions made during the 118th Congress.
resolution. If it really did happen before session ending on Jan 3rd, 2025, I think that’s fair, but from the transcript it sounds like 119th for the actual passing. I haven’t checked sources, yet.
@EvanDaniel To follow up here: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/5 suggests that the House Office of Diversity and Inclusion was not officially eliminated until the 119th congress. It does look like it was defunded and clearly planned for elimination during the 118th given this was on the first day of the 119th, but my read is that the official removal didn't happen within the criteria of this market.
@mattyb Three have died AFAICT. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Congress_members_who_died_in_office_%282000%E2%80%93%29?wprov=sfla1
@AndrewHartman Good question. If congress passes a bill sending any aid money to Ukraine, this should count. Frozen Russian assets (assuming this is cash) would definitely count. As would weapons / defense systems / food / …etc.
I think “aid” actually leaves open a semi-wide window. Now this has to come from Congress so Biden or the DoD can’t do this themselves and have that count.
Does that leave any ambiguity?
@Marnix I barely follow US politics, chatgpt told me this was rare 😆, curious if you think any active member in particular is likely to resign?
@TheBayesian two have already announced their resignations in 2024. If a third joins, this’ll be a YES
@TheBayesian NJ senator Bob Hernandez, who's currently being investigated for bribery (assuming senators count too)
@Marnix but with that said, it's also an election year - it's far more common to see resignations around now, with people trying to run for something else (or even just deciding they hate the place)
@TheUserU2 how does this differ from “cause a government shutdown”? If a budget isn’t passed on time, what happens?
@mattyb The US hasn't passed an actual budget via the normal (legally required, not that that matters) process since like . . . 1997? ish. They just keep passing continuing resolutions to keep the government open. Presuming the question option actually means passing a budget the correct way (and not the usual end of year all things jammed into an omnibus that nobody reads method) this should be sitting at like .5%.
<accidentally posted twice>
@mattyb It's too late for me to edit it, but if you want to resolve it as N/A and restate the question then that should work.
@TheUserU2 turns out i had the power all along mwahaha. this way i don’t steal your trader bonuses :)