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Will Italy be eliminated second?
10
Ṁ170Ṁ4.9k
resolved Sep 24
Resolved
NO

In webdiplomacy game 713830, Austria is essentially ensured to be eliminated first with only one center remaining and the player left. The second lowest country to survive currently is Italy at 8%. Will it be next?

Resolves YES if Italy is eliminated.

Resolves NO when two countries are defeated but Italy still exists or when the game ends.

Close date might be adjusted for game end.

Market context
Italy
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Marktweise boughtṀ1,000NO

@marktweise Nice trade

predictedNO

@AnttiRasinen speed beats precognition quite often 🤠

Very interesting turn now. Both, Italy and Germany, could be defeated but there is so much going on around them that priorities could be elsewhere.

What happens if there's a double-elimination?

@LasseRasinen Hm, I’m tending towards YES. Germany and Italy would both be “second”. Can’t think of a good tiebreaker to declare only one as “second”.

There is actually a solid chance that Germany is defeated before Italy.

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