MANIFOLD
When will inflation in Germany reach 2%?
16
Ṁ1.3kṀ11k
resolved Sep 11
100%96%
August
0.0%
January
0.0%
February
0.1%
March
0.3%
April
0.1%
May
0.3%
June
0.3%
July
0.7%
September
0.6%
October
0.7%
November
1.1%Other

The ECB targets an inflation of 2% in the EU in general and implicitly also for Germany. In December 2023, Destatis reports 3.6% inflation rate year-on-year.

Resolves to the first month, where Destatis reports 2.0% or lower.

Close date might be extended.

This is not about the annual average inflation (which was 5.9% in 2023).

Market context
Inflation
European Union
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bought Ṁ50 YES

@marktwse august just in

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2024/08/PE24_329_611.html

bought Ṁ200 YES

Looks like it but I’ll wait some more. This is only „expected“ and it is a close call.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@marktwse as i understand it, we have confirmation as of yesterday
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2024/09/PE24_340_611.html

@LeonardoKr Thanks for watching!

sold Ṁ5 YES

July: 2.3%

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/inflation-up-four-german-states-pointing-modest-national-rise-2024-04-29/

@marktwse you may wish to extend the market close date

bought Ṁ250 NO

Inflation rate of +2.2% expected in March 2024

The blue line needs to stay below the red line to resolve to April.

bought Ṁ500 NO

@marktwse January (2.9%) and February (2.5%) resolve No:

https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/konjunktur/inflation-deutschland-entspannung-energiepreise-100.html

@Primer Yes, but in a single-choice market I cannot resolve individual answers early.

@marktwse Ah ok, wasn"t aware of that. Gotta live off those loans then 😂

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