The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a leading indicator for the economy. In the second half of the month, 400 purchasing managers are survey if their numbers are higher, lower, or the same as in the previous month. If the resulting index is >50 means expansion.

One answer resolves NA depending on the presidential election outcome.

The other answer resolves YES if the November US ISM Manufacturing PMI is above 50.

The other answer resolves NO if the November US ISM Manufacturing PMI is 50 or lower.

A plot of the last 10 years of monthly data:

See also /marktwse/msci-usa-annual-growth-on-inaugurat