Polaris Dawn launches in March
Polaris Dawn launches in March
12
230Ṁ1129resolved Mar 26
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
No earlier than March 2023, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Polaris Dawn mission from historic Launch Complex 39A at Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Dragon and the Polaris Dawn crew will spend up to five days in orbit. (source)
It will be the "first commercial space walk".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ73 | |
| 2 | Ṁ12 | |
| 3 | Ṁ8 | |
| 4 | Ṁ5 | |
| 5 | Ṁ4 |
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
By when will a second Starship / Super Heavy launch tower be operational?
When will Starship flight 10 happen?
Will there be two or more SpaceX Starship launches in the second half of 2025?
70% chance
How many Starship launches will occur in 2025?
Will we set a new record for number of people in space by mid 2025?
26% chance
When will Starship flight 11 happen?
Will SpaceX's Starship have 40 successful launches before 2027?
18% chance
When will there be x simultaneously operational Starships?
Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?
Will an American walk on the Moon during Trump's second term?
15% chance